Exports of the Italian gold sector recorded a significant increase in the first months of 2024, but forecasts for the future appear more uncertain. According to the Research Center of Confindustria Federorafi, gold, silver and jewellery exports increased by 38% in the period, reaching a total value of just over 11 billion euros. However, this result was strongly influenced by the dynamics of Turkey, which moved from fifth to first place among destination markets compared to 2023. This is due to geopolitical factors and the introduction of duties on gold, which stimulated imports by local operators. Excluding Turkey, overall export growth would have been limited to a modest +0,3%.
Turkey's impact was decisive for the extra-EU market, which represents 79,6% of the total and recorded an increase of 48,9%, exceeding the sector average by 10,9 points. On the contrary, exports to EU countries grew by only 7,3% in the same period, covering 20,4% of total exports.
Among the main markets, the United States ranks second after Turkey, despite a 5,1% drop in sales compared to the same period in 2023, with a turnover still exceeding one billion euros. Switzerland remains in third place, despite recording a 20,4% decline, reflecting a slowdown in the luxury segment and new logistics strategies by the major players in the sector. The United Arab Emirates occupies fourth place, with an increase of 8,6% and a turnover of 890,4 million euros. Exports to France, an important market for luxury, decreased by 1,7%, while Hong Kong recorded a decline of 5,5%. In contrast, Germany showed an increase of 5,9% in the first nine months of 2024 compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to 2025, 47,5% of companies expect business volumes to remain stable, 31,2% fear a deterioration, and the remaining 21,3% expect growth. These prospects outline a possible overall contraction in the value of the sector of about one and a half percentage points.